tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post2738484872459744038..comments2023-06-12T09:43:25.286-04:00Comments on The Arms Control Otaku 『軍備管理のオタク』: New DoD report on China's military. (Yawn)Robot Economisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462962401593301110noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-48084639663394877002007-05-30T16:06:00.000-04:002007-05-30T16:06:00.000-04:00Its easy to like Koxinga. He's part Ming Chinese ...Its easy to like Koxinga. He's part Ming Chinese official, part rebel-pirate. You can interpret him however you like -- which is probably why he is so popular.Robot Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462962401593301110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-43598752084273351182007-05-30T13:31:00.000-04:002007-05-30T13:31:00.000-04:00Funny, most Koxinga enthusiasts I know are Blues p...Funny, most Koxinga enthusiasts I know are Blues pushing the Taiwan-as-eternal-part-of-China theme. So the Greens are trying to mythologize him as well? Silly.Tequilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17458665118056232009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-42948786175785081372007-05-30T10:58:00.000-04:002007-05-30T10:58:00.000-04:00Tequila - I completely agree. Some Taiwanese and T...Tequila - I completely agree. Some Taiwanese and Taiwanophiles are so desparate to find the "essential elements of a Taiwanese tradition" that they are constantly trying to work Koxinga into modern history.<BR/><BR/>One could easily claim that the <A HREF="http://www.northguan-nsa.gov.tw/en/view_detail.php?id=24" REL="nofollow">Temple of the 18 Lords</A> is more Taiwanese than a Ming irredentist like Koxinga.Robot Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462962401593301110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-87095912774503234022007-05-30T09:28:00.000-04:002007-05-30T09:28:00.000-04:00Sorry, but you wouldn't believe how often Koxinga ...Sorry, but you wouldn't believe how often Koxinga comes up in Taiwanese political discussion ... far too often and far too seriously.Tequilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17458665118056232009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-67225331211022887422007-05-30T06:27:00.000-04:002007-05-30T06:27:00.000-04:00RE - Agreed that an invasion will likely never hap...RE - Agreed that an invasion will likely never happen, assuming things stay on the same path they are on now. All bets are off if Taiwan actually declares independence, though.<BR/><BR/>Most ROC Army officers and professional soldiers are still Blue, BTW. The Greens might fight, but they'd fight like the Mahdi Army circa 2004 rather than the Islamic Army in Iraq or Ansar al-Sunnah.<BR/><BR/>The lack of a safe haven and resupply, combined with the ability of the PLA to flood the zone, means that the odds of the domestic insurgency losing, and losing bady, are quite high. We often underestimate just how difficult it is to keep an insurgency alive. Support of the people and a just cause are not enough. Taiwan has historically rolled over (Koxinga is a bad example given the extremely different population of the island back then, but Japan is not) for very good reasons --- it's just a terrible place to try and run an insurgency.Tequilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17458665118056232009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-7307383399650672322007-05-29T20:41:00.000-04:002007-05-29T20:41:00.000-04:00An amusing story from a friend who went back to Ta...An amusing story from a friend who went back to Taiwan to meet his military service requirement.<BR/><BR/> He described their target practice sessions, where the fellow next to him would regularly finish with six or seven holes in his target. Unfortunately, they'd only been issued four rounds apiece...<BR/><BR/> But I think the cyber-blockade scenario would be much more plausible, and I'm surprised it was not mentioned in the DoD report.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-87824454526681461242007-05-29T13:53:00.000-04:002007-05-29T13:53:00.000-04:00Oh and one would hope that the PLA will learn from...Oh and one would hope that the PLA will learn from the U.S. experience in Iraq -- particularly capturing Taiwanese military depots.<BR/><BR/>You never know though...Robot Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462962401593301110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-41456545172198858012007-05-29T13:51:00.000-04:002007-05-29T13:51:00.000-04:00Tequila - I think we will have to agree to disagre...Tequila - I think we will have to agree to disagree for the most part. Our whole argument is so hypothetical that everything is really a matter of perspective. <BR/><BR/>Frankly, I doubt the PLA could ever capture Taiwan, even without the support of U.S. combatants. China is already in a pretty optimal political and diplomatic position, why would it want to jeopardize that with an invasion?<BR/><BR/>The only three points that I would offer in my defence are:<BR/><BR/>(1) True, 2/28 broke the native resistance back in 1947, but it is the memory of the incident and the 50 years of repression that followed could provide a crucial "never again" feeling that would fuel resistance. (Denny Roy would argue the opposite -- Taiwan has rolled over to occupiers throughout its history, just ask Coxinga and the Japanese)<BR/><BR/>(2) I think your comparison of the materiel and personnel situation isn't exactly fair. The experience of Taiwanese conscripts and the size of Taiwan's hardware stockpile don't have to be as large as Iraq's, they just have to be enough to make Taiwan ungovernable. A native insurgency doesn't have to win, it just needs to "not lose."<BR/><BR/>(3) I see the DPP's victory in 2000 as the culmination of a successful resistance to the KMT. I guess I just see them fighting harder for what they've earned.Robot Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462962401593301110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-65905203988301461902007-05-29T11:57:00.000-04:002007-05-29T11:57:00.000-04:00Sorry for the double post, I thought I lost the or...Sorry for the double post, I thought I lost the original post.<BR/><BR/>Regarding the Taiwanese army's stockpile - not convinced. This would be a key target of any PLA invasion, and they would have the manpower to take and guard, unlike the U.S. in Iraq. The ROC military also is nowhere the size nor has the munitions store of the Iraqi Army and security forces. No ROC military personnel has anything like the combat experience accrued to Iraqi military personnel engaged in nearly 30 years of nonstop war and internal war against Iran and between Shia, Kurds, and Sunnis; nor is the population as inured to the hardships of war as the Iraqis were in 2003. <BR/><BR/>Regarding political divisions: the divisions between Hoklo/Taiwanese, Hakka, and mainlanders are growing worse, not healing. Regardless there is no unified Taiwanese population, and the CCP would surely exploit this dynamic just as the KMT did. Sectarian divisions cripple the U.S. effort in Iraq because it conflicts with the U.S. political goal of establishing a unified Iraqi government with control over all of its territory. Chinese goals in Taiwan are very different and sectarian divisions would aid rather than hinder a Chinese occupation aimed at absorbing Taiwan into China.<BR/><BR/>Assuming a successful PLA breakout that conquers Taiwan so there can even BE an insurgency, one would have to predicate that the PLA would be successful in onshoring large numbers of troops. Again, the massive footprint availabe to the PLA, along with the utter lack of any sort of safe refuge for insurgent forces, would result in the quick death of any insurgency.<BR/><BR/>Note that the PLA has a decent record in fighting domestic insurgency. The Tibetan insurgency in the 1950s had far more favorable conditions than a Taiwanese insurgency would face and utterly failed to gain any traction. Xinjiang separatism has failed in similar fashion.<BR/><BR/>Note that 2/28 did NOT result in an insurgency breaking out. It instead broke native resistance to KMT domination and resulted in the successful imposition of one-party rule.Tequilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17458665118056232009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-81166163890618454632007-05-29T08:35:00.000-04:002007-05-29T08:35:00.000-04:00The Taiwanese are just about the last population r...The Taiwanese are just about the last population ready for a grinding, bloody urban insurgency. They are comfortably well off and politically divided. There are also no weapons or explosives widely available, or difficult terrain suitable to guerrilla insurgency.<BR/><BR/>The PLA and the PAP are also the last forces in the world to have problems establishing a heavy footprint. They would have none of the problems that U.S. forces in Bagdhad have had with language and intelligence. There is something of a cultural gulf, but not nearly as wide of one as Taiwanese propagandists proclaim.Tequilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17458665118056232009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-43214582664103523182007-05-29T08:30:00.000-04:002007-05-29T08:30:00.000-04:00Not to mention that the PLA is just about the last...Not to mention that the PLA is just about the last army that would ever have problems putting down a heavy footprint. For internal security, they could also turn to the PAP paramilitaries as well.<BR/><BR/>Also just about the last people suited for a grinding urban insurgency are the well-off urban population of Taiwan. There are few weapons or explosives available and bitter political splits within the population over the nature of the Taiwanese state.Tequilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17458665118056232009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-65467057011372604792007-05-28T22:10:00.000-04:002007-05-28T22:10:00.000-04:00An insurgency in Taiwan? C'mon, it's an island. ...An insurgency in Taiwan? C'mon, it's an island. They don't exactly have the porous borders that Iraq shares with Iran, Syria, etc, or that Afghanistan has with Pakistan.<BR/><BR/>For my fiction, I'm more entertained by "The Bear & The Dragon". There's a Russian joke about the possible Chinese strategies: "The Great Offensive, The Small Retreat, and Infiltration by Small Groups of One to Two Million Across the Border."<BR/><BR/>Seriously, I'm more interested in what was said (or not said) about cyber-warefare. The document covers actions on the battlefield, but what about something similar to what's being experienced in Estonia? NATO took no action other than to send observers. Would an information blockade of sorts against Taiwan be an act of war?<BR/><BR/>Back on 12/27/06, something like six of seven of Taiwan's undersea cables were taken of of commission by an earthquake, so we have a pretty good idea about what their physical link diversity is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com