tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post6400484763999256128..comments2023-06-12T09:43:25.286-04:00Comments on The Arms Control Otaku 『軍備管理のオタク』: China wants military power = Duh...Robot Economisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462962401593301110noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5594178071784212079.post-22152589311122530442007-06-15T04:40:00.000-04:002007-06-15T04:40:00.000-04:00Good points, but there is an element of wishfulnes...Good points, but there is an element of wishfulness about the first. The reason why analysts focus on the capability side of the PRC's military modernisation is that, as you point out, we don't know for sure what it is for, and more importantly, we are not likely to know in the future either until it is too late (if the doomsayers are right). And even if those in charge today have the purest motives in the world, their sons and daughters (or immediate political replacements - read about how Germany's intent changed between the 1880s and 1890s through a new Kaiser) might have other ideas as circumstances and the balance of forces change. Continually saying "we don't know what it is for" , implying we shouldn't talk about it, is not a better option.<BR/><BR/>Equally, there is a natural reaction of "I told you so" on the part of those few voices in the late 1990s who argued then that much more attention should be paid to the early signs of significant PRC military modernisation. At the time those people were basically told to shut up - the prevailing wisdom was that the PLA had "short arms and short legs" and was not going anywhere fast. This stereotype of the PLA as some manpower-intensive behemoth relying on people's war defensive tactics is in fact very hard to shift from those seniors who do not follow the PLA in detail. No doubt those who do follow the PLA closely yawn and roll their eyes at being taught to suck eggs, but they are not the intended audience of such articles anyway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com